Crunch Time

After a nice few days where HGAME nicely increased the fund value, it's time to do a bit of work.  I've cashed in the OW as this had reached a value that was roughly where I thought the file would open and was starting to drop again.  The main stock is starting to drop now, but I think there is still profit to be made there.

Another lesson learnt - make sure you get your fund description correct to maximise the available stocks and bonds you can invest in.  I spent too much time trying to specify how to differentiate between Sci-Fi and fantasy, that I didn't notice that this was the only fund that didn't include a clause around investing in star bonds that are adjusting for Sci-Fi movies.  Doh!  

Weekly Update

Last Week     +14%

Month to date+4.76%

Progress against 1% per day = -H$1.78M

After a rocky start, things have been moving in a positive direction.  The fund got back to the starting point over the weekend and should make it's first million this week.

Another lesson

Having missed out significantly on YLMAN, due to being asleep when the news was posted and then underestimating how much it was going to rise by, I have taken the decision to long max shares on all Sci-Fi stocks under H$1 that are in development.  This hasn't used up a huge amount of my available cash, but the potential returns are huge (YLMAN would have been over 5000% return had I followed this strategy from the start).

Starting to get the hang of this

Of course it does help when one of the biggest films of the year qualifies for the fund!  The real test will come after the weekend when Hunger Games starts to fluctuate, but 2 positive days in a row (with today looking good).

Me and My Big Mouth

OK - Everyone is allowed to change their mind!  Following yesterday's post, the general opinion seems to be for a much higher opening than I predicted for HGAME, meaning there is profit to be made there.  It has helped that a couple of Sci-Fi stocks were hit by the reset traders (COLOS and MASON) so I've been able to cover the commission from shifting into HGAME - now we wait.


The new prices for the warrants (based on 125 opening) makes them very difficult to read and play.

Next Up - Hunger Games

The next opener that qualifies for the Sci-Fi Fund is Hunger Games - whilst there is no doubt that this will open big (my estimate 100-105), it's current price means that there's not actually a huge amount of profit in it.  The fund will definately play the warrant options when they are released, and will buy 20,000 to 30,0000 of the movie stock, but the profit isn't there to liquidate and go all in on it.

Let's forget that last week happened

OK - not the best start last week, but a couple of lessons learnt about the differenc between managing a fund and a personal port. 

1. When you have a limited number of stocks you can invest in -  don't take a position on an opener too soon - try and play the fluctuations
2. Take the profits when you can

Trying to keep track of John Carter was like trying to catch fog - at one point on Friday, the fund was half a million up and I thought about flipping the short to a long - I didn't.  I checked again, half an hour later after putting children to bed, the half a million had gone!  But lesson learnt - on a positive note, the fund did have its first positive day yesterday - onwards and upwards!